Parameters influencing the prospective life cycle emissions of the Austrian building stock: a global sensitivity analysis

Abstract

Environmental building stock models have increasingly been developed to inform local policies. However, identifying and quantifying all relevant parameters for such large-scale modelling remains a challenge. This study identifies key dynamic parameters used to project life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Austrian building stock through 2050, while also analyzing their systemic interactions. Both operational GHG emissions from energy consumption in buildings and embodied GHG emissions from new constructions, renovations and demolitions are included. The Morris screening analysis and the Sobol global sensitivity analysis are applied to a building stock model that combines dynamic material flow analysis with prospective life cycle assessment. The two sensitivity analysis methods produce different rankings of the most influential parameters, underscoring the need to combine them for a more comprehensive analysis. In addition to energy-related parameters, the average living area per person also emerges as one of the most influential parameters, emphasizing the importance of incorporating efficient use of space into current policies. The study also evaluates the impact of the rate at which each parameter will evolve by 2050. For instance, if GHG reduction measures are implemented slowly, reducing personal heating consumption or changing construction material production will have a greater impact than changing heating systems. However, if heating system upgrades can be quickly implemented, they would have a greater effect than the other two measures. This suggests that prioritizing GHG reduction strategies should also take into account the speed at which these measures can be deployed. Additional research is necessary to enhance the application of systems thinking in building stock models.