Opposing-through crash risk forecasting using artificial intelligence-based video analytics for real-time application: integrating generalized extreme value theory and time series forecasting models

Abstract

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and traffic sensing technologies provide significant opportunities for real-time crash risk forecasting. While forecasting based on historical crash data yields macroscopic insights into future crash risks, such information is often insufficient for real-time applications. In contrast, traffic conflict techniques (TCTs) leveraged by extreme value theory (EVT) and AI-based video analytics have enabled crash risk estimation to a granular level, presenting a promising potential for real-time applications. This study develops a unified framework of integrating generalized extreme value (GEV) theory with parametric and non-parametric forecasting models to predict opposing-through crash risks at signalized intersections. A deep neural network-based computer vision technique was employed to extract post encroachment time (PET) traffic conflicts from 97 h of video footage. Crash risks were estimated using a non-stationary GEV model, incorporating traffic conflict counts, speed variations, and signal timing characteristics. These risk estimates were then forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models to analyze short-term crash trends. Results show that the mean crash frequency estimates fell within the 95 % confidence limits of observed crashes and confirm the adequacy of the developed EVT model in estimating opposing-through crashes. The autoregressive and recurrent neural network models exhibit similar forecasting accuracy for crash risk forecasting, with reliable predictions extending up to 11 future signal cycles. The proposed real-time crash risk forecasting framework can be a crucial component of an intelligent transport system, leading to proactive safety management for signalized intersections.