Decoupling effect and driving factors of transport CO2 emissions: Modeling and prediction of energy and environmental factors towards Vision-2035 in a developing economy

Abstract

Concerning the National Strategy for “Carbon Neutrality Targets,” the decoupling between energy and economy in Pakistan has received significant attention. The current study exhibits the decomposition and decoupling analysis of Pakistan's transport sector, using the nine major energy and economic driving factors from 2002 to 2021. The results reveal that (1) transport services value-added and its economic contribution are key factors in growing CO₂ emissions; however, energy intensity is a factor in reducing CO₂ emissions within the transport sector. (2) The transport sector has made notable progress in decoupling, with strong negative decoupling and expansive negative decoupling being dominant states, indicating that fuel consumption is contributing to a rise in CO₂ emissions. The presence of these decoupling trends during the analyzed period has increased due to energy substitution and the growing trend of the turnover economy, presenting variations in technology and efficiency-related effects. (3) The economic structure share, income, energy intensity, and population factors were predominately observed during the estimated period; however, the economic structure encouraged decoupling. (4) Scenario analysis suggests that the efficiency of the transport sector can achieve its intended income objectives through energy consumption substitution and improvements in the economic structure; thereby enabling CO₂ emissions mitigation. Finally, the study recommends frameworks to support policymakers in developing comprehensive policies, particularly in renewable energy technologies, to promote environmental sustainability.