Solar activity and ionospheric variation: A comprehensive study using hurst exponent and probability density functions analysis

IF 2.8 3区地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.060

Mahdi Momeni , Yenca Migoya-Orué

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study analyzes the ionospheric dynamics during the solar maximum of 2014 and the solar minimum of 2019, focusing on Vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) and key solar and geomagnetic indices, including SYM-H, X-ray flux, and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. By employing the Hurst exponent and Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis, we quantify the persistence and correlation properties of ionospheric fluctuations under varying solar conditions. The Hurst exponent reveals significant long-range correlations in vTEC, indicating a high level of persistence, particularly during solar minimum. In contrast, solar maximum conditions exhibit more unstable behavior across all indices, with lower Hurst values suggesting enhanced short-term irregularities. PDF analysis shows leptokurtic distributions, highlighting the prevalence of extreme events, especially during heightened solar activity. Our findings underscore the complex interplay between solar activity and ionospheric behavior, providing valuable insights for improving predictive models related to space weather impacts on communication and navigation systems.

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太阳活动与电离层变化：利用赫斯特指数和概率密度函数分析的综合研究

本研究分析了2014年太阳活动极大期和2019年太阳活动极小期的电离层动态，重点研究了垂直总电子含量（vTEC）和太阳地磁指标（SYM-H、x射线通量和极紫外线辐照度）。利用Hurst指数和概率密度函数（PDF）分析，我们量化了不同太阳条件下电离层波动的持久性和相关性。赫斯特指数揭示了vTEC的显著的长期相关性，表明了高水平的持续性，特别是在太阳极小期。相反，在所有指数中，太阳极大期条件表现出更不稳定的行为，Hurst值越低表明短期不规则性增强。PDF分析显示了细峰分布，突出了极端事件的普遍性，特别是在太阳活动加剧期间。我们的发现强调了太阳活动和电离层行为之间复杂的相互作用，为改进与空间天气对通信和导航系统影响相关的预测模型提供了有价值的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Space Research 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

11.50%

发文量

800

审稿时长

5.8 months

期刊介绍： The COSPAR publication Advances in Space Research (ASR) is an open journal covering all areas of space research including: space studies of the Earth''s surface, meteorology, climate, the Earth-Moon system, planets and small bodies of the solar system, upper atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres of the Earth and planets including reference atmospheres, space plasmas in the solar system, astrophysics from space, materials sciences in space, fundamental physics in space, space debris, space weather, Earth observations of space phenomena, etc. NB: Please note that manuscripts related to life sciences as related to space are no more accepted for submission to Advances in Space Research. Such manuscripts should now be submitted to the new COSPAR Journal Life Sciences in Space Research (LSSR). All submissions are reviewed by two scientists in the field. COSPAR is an interdisciplinary scientific organization concerned with the progress of space research on an international scale. Operating under the rules of ICSU, COSPAR ignores political considerations and considers all questions solely from the scientific viewpoint.