Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024

IF 2.8 3区地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065

Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali , Carlos Molina , Hyuk Park , Adriano Camps

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Between 50 and 80 earthquakes are recorded daily, resulting in over 20,000 yearly seismic events. Currently, no reliable earthquake precursors can provide an early warning. Still, research has inspected anomalies in the Magnetic Field Vector over the Y-axis (MFV-Y) and Total Electron Content (TEC) as possible precursors of upcoming seismic activity. This study has employed a large global dataset of MFV-Y and TEC data acquired from Swarm satellites between 2014 and 2024 to analyze ionospheric anomalies in earthquake-affected areas. More than 200,000 earthquakes with magnitudes M4+ and within ± 60° latitude have been studied. The Swarm data were compared with physical models, notably, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), at the exact locations and times to pinpoint anomalies through the Root Mean Square Error Difference (RMSD) in the time series. This research marks the first use of the Confusion Matrix (CM), Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC), and various other Figures of Merit (FoM) to assess and try to improve the performance of the methodologies employed and to find the optimal configuration conditions for serving as proxies for earthquake forecasting. As a result, positive anomalies in MFV-Y and TEC were identified 1 to 7 days before the analyzed earthquakes.

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2014 - 2024年群卫星磁场和TEC数据与M4+地震的全球相关性

每天有50到80次地震记录，每年有超过20,000次地震事件。目前，没有可靠的地震前兆可以提供早期预警。尽管如此，研究人员已经检查了y轴上磁场矢量（MFV-Y）和总电子含量（TEC）的异常，这些异常可能是即将到来的地震活动的前兆。本研究利用2014 - 2024年Swarm卫星获取的MFV-Y和TEC大型全球数据集，分析了地震灾区电离层异常。在±60°纬度范围内研究了超过20万次震级为M4+的地震。将Swarm数据与物理模型（特别是国际地磁场参考（IGRF）和国际电离层参考（IRI））在准确的位置和时间进行比较，通过时间序列的均方根误差差（RMSD）来确定异常。这项研究标志着首次使用混淆矩阵（CM）、受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）和各种其他优点图（FoM）来评估和尝试改进所采用方法的性能，并找到作为地震预测代理的最佳配置条件。因此，MFV-Y和TEC的正异常在分析地震前1 ~ 7天被发现。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Space Research 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

11.50%

发文量

800

审稿时长

5.8 months

期刊介绍： The COSPAR publication Advances in Space Research (ASR) is an open journal covering all areas of space research including: space studies of the Earth''s surface, meteorology, climate, the Earth-Moon system, planets and small bodies of the solar system, upper atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres of the Earth and planets including reference atmospheres, space plasmas in the solar system, astrophysics from space, materials sciences in space, fundamental physics in space, space debris, space weather, Earth observations of space phenomena, etc. NB: Please note that manuscripts related to life sciences as related to space are no more accepted for submission to Advances in Space Research. Such manuscripts should now be submitted to the new COSPAR Journal Life Sciences in Space Research (LSSR). All submissions are reviewed by two scientists in the field. COSPAR is an interdisciplinary scientific organization concerned with the progress of space research on an international scale. Operating under the rules of ICSU, COSPAR ignores political considerations and considers all questions solely from the scientific viewpoint.