How does digital industry agglomeration drive carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China? The role of digital technology innovation

Abstract

As countries strive to balance economic growth with carbon reduction, understanding the role of the digital economy in shaping climate outcomes has become increasingly critical. This study utilizes panel data from 243 Chinese cities (2011–2020) to examine the impact of digital industry agglomeration (DIA) on urban carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (CPCN) and explores the nonlinear moderating role of digital technology innovation (DTI). The results indicate that (1) DIA positively contributes to CPCN, a finding that remains robust across multiple empirical tests; (2) DTI exhibits a nonlinear moderating effect, with a significant threshold at 469.949, beyond which the marginal impact of DIA on CPCN becomes more pronounced; and (3) this moderating effect is primarily driven by disruptive rather than progressive DTI and is more evident in economically developed cities and those with stronger low-carbon development endowments. These findings provide valuable policy insights into integrating DIA and DTI to accelerate CPCN efforts in China and serve as a reference for other high-emission emerging economies.