Multilevel emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China’s net-zero transition

Abstract

Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and electrifying end-use sectors. However, concerns exist that electrification may increase emissions while coal power dominates. Using a global climate model, we explore electrification scenarios with varying coal phase-out timelines and assess their climate impact on China’s sectors. A 10-year delay in coal phase-out could increase global peak temperature by about 0.02°C. However, on a sectoral level, there is no evidence of significant additional emissions from electrification, even with a slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential “order of abatement” view, showing electrification can start before the power sector is fully decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity drops below 150 gCO₂/kWh by 2040, electrification can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of buildings, steel, and transport services, and along with energy-efficiency measures, it can avoid approximately 0.035°C of additional global warming by 2060.