Evolving El Niño Patterns and Their Potential to Transform California Market Squid (Doryteuthis opalescens) Fishing Environment

Abstract

The geographic center of El Niño has shifted from the tropical eastern Pacific (EP) in the 20th century to the tropical central Pacific (CP) in the 21st century. Analyzing data spanning 1948–2018, this study uncovers notable alterations in the impact of the changing El Niño patterns on California market squid (Doryteuthis opalescens) landings. While the traditional EP El Niño in the 20th century significantly reduces squid landings, this impact diminishes with the ascent of the CP type of El Niño in the 21st century. Remarkably, the CP-I type of El Niño, a specific variant where warming occurs predominantly in the central Pacific and is often less intense but more frequent than traditional El Niño events, can even amplify squid landings. These transformations stem from variations in sea surface temperature, trade winds, and Sverdrup transport associated with different El Niño types. These findings suggest that the fishery community should consider developing adaptive approaches to address the evolving impacts of El Niño.