Carbon sink potential and contributions to dual carbon goals of the grain for green program in the arid regions of Northwest China

Abstract

Forests, as a crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems, serve as significant carbon sinks for mitigating climate change. In China, the Grain for Green Program (GFGP)—a large-scale ecological initiative—aims to enhance environmental protection and forest carbon sink capacity, thereby contributing to carbon neutrality goals. This research examines the carbon sink capacity of the GFGP in the Arid Regions of Northwest China (ARNC) from 2000 to 2023 and formulates three prospective scenarios—sustainable development, baseline, and regional competition—integrating diverse combinations of climatic changes, economic variables, and societal impacts. It models and predicts the capacity of carbon sinks, their contribution rates, and the economic value of these sinks for the dual carbon target years of 2030 and 2060.The findings indicated that: ①From 2000 to 2023, GFGP in the ARNC generated a carbon sink increment of 63.26 Tg C, with fallow forests (23 % of the area) contributing 28.2 %. ②In 2030, GFGP in the ARNC may achieve an annual carbon sink increase of 4.07–7.43 Tg C, offsetting 0.62 % of regional emissions but contributing up to 66.96 % at the county level. ③By 2060, GFGP’s annual carbon sink increase may reach 7.6–8.48 Tg C, offsetting 27.98–45.49 % of regional emissions and up to 11.9 times at the county level. For economically underdeveloped counties in the ARNC, GFGP is an effective tool for achieving carbon neutrality. Its carbon sinks can support carbon trading and serve as a model for other regions.