Quantifying conflict risks in raw material supply using the INFORM risk index

Abstract

Regulations and initiatives focused on responsible sourcing of raw materials have grown in the last decades. So-called “conflict minerals”— typically tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold (3TG) associated with Democratic Republic of Congo — have been a target for responsible sourcing since 2008. As production of most raw materials has increased, there is need to pay attention to sourcing from conflict-affected or high-risk areas which poses various risks and consequences. To support sustainable and responsible use, companies seek to identify and manage potential risks. Existing tools and initiatives are limited in supporting companies' sustainability goals, as many are generic or are not publicly accessible. This article introduces an open-access tool that provides a product focus, the ConflictRisk method, which assesses the risks associated with sourcing raw materials from conflict-affected and high-risk areas at the country level using publicly available data. Building upon the existing GeoPolRisk framework, this method replaces the governance indicator with the INFORM Risk Index, which provides a direct measure of armed conflict. The ConflictRisk method was demonstrated in a case study considering 52 raw materials imported into the United States, and revealing risks even for materials sourced from outside traditionally recognized high-risk areas. Differences between the ConflictRisk method and existing frameworks, such as the European Union's conflict mineral regulations, underscore the value of a quantitative assessment. The article also presents a framework for integrating the ConflictRisk method into Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment to characterize the impacts of conflict risks. Limitations of the method include its reliance on national-level data, which can restrict the granularity of conflict risk evaluations at the sub-national level. The study also emphasizes the need for comprehensive supply chain analysis and further research to refine the integration of conflict risk into broader sustainability assessments.