Urban-rural disparities and future trends in dietary water footprint across African nations

Abstract

This study investigates disparities in dietary water footprints (DWF) across Africa from a consumption-based perspective, focusing on urban-rural, inter-country, and food category dimensions. Using DWF data from 2010 to 2022 for urban and rural populations across 48 African countries and applying integrated assessment models, we analyze dietary consumption and DWF across 11 food types. The findings reveal significant structural differences in consumption patterns between urban and rural populations, across countries, and among dietary categories, as well as the current status and projected trends of DWF. Between 2010 and 2022, food consumption among urban residents in Africa increased by 10.3 %, while rural residents saw a decline of 5.4 %. Compared to urban residents, rural populations had higher grain intake but lower consumption of meat, fruits, and vegetables. The DWF for animal-based foods was notably higher than for plant-based foods, with beef showing the highest DWF at approximately 109.86 m³ in 2022, compared to fruits at 4.82 m³. Additionally, the analysis indicates notable inequalities in DWF among African countries, with widening disparities between the highest and lowest DWF-consuming countries, driven mainly by differences in poultry, beef, and grain consumption. Economic development also plays a key role, with higher-income countries experiencing greater increases in per capita DWF due to dietary shifts toward more water-intensive animal-based foods. The differences in DWF between urban and rural residents, as well as among countries, are projected to continue expanding. By 2030 and 2050, Africa's average DWF of African residents is expected to rise by 75.96 % and 534.51 %, respectively, relative to 2022. The DWF gap between the top and bottom five countries, recorded at 5026.13 m³ in 2022, is anticipated to increase to 7027.19 m³ by 2030 and 29,097.42 m³ by 2050. Scenario analysis shows that SSP3-RCP2.6, characterized by rapid population growth and resource-intensive diets, leads to the highest increase in DWF, while SSP1-RCP2.6, which assumes sustainable development and dietary shifts, results in the slowest growth. These findings support the potential for improving dietary structures in underserved areas by increasing access to nutrient-rich, plant-based foods, which may alleviate future water resource pressures.