Disaggregated impacts of technology on agriculture in Nigeria: Insights into intensity and diversity

Abstract

Do all subsectors of agriculture potentially benefit from the increasing transformation of technology within the Nigerian economy? This study responds by empirically investigating the relationship between technology and agricultural output in Nigeria’s crop, livestock, fishing, and forestry subsectors from 1981 to 2021. Using the ARDL model, the findings reveal heterogeneous effects of technology on output. In the long run, agricultural total factor productivity significantly enhances productivity in the crop and fishing subsectors but exhibits an inverse relationship with forestry output, indicating inefficiencies in technology application. Capital stock exerts a strong short-run impact on crop and livestock output but demonstrates diminishing long-run effects, suggesting the need for continuous reinvestment. Meanwhile, labour remains largely insignificant in the short run but proves key in sustaining long-term crop and livestock production output. Macroeconomic factors such as real GDP, interest rates, and trade policies also exhibit varying effects across subsectors, underscoring the importance of a differentiated policy approach. To ensure the robustness of the findings, the study employs the DOLS estimator, which corroborates the ARDL results, reinforcing the reliability of the long-run estimates. The study stresses the necessity for targeted technology transfer initiatives, sustained capital investment, and sector-specific interventions to optimise agricultural productivity. These insights provide a foundation for designing policies that enhance sustainable agricultural growth, food security, and economic resilience in Nigeria.