A multi-attribute decision-making method of cascade reservoir joint scheduling schemes considering water–sediment, eco-environment, and socio-economy in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Multi-attribute decision making for reservoir scheduling plays a crucial role in promoting the sustainable development of basins, requiring a well-structured evaluation index system and an efficient decision-making method to facilitate scientific scheduling. After obtaining Pareto solutions for the multi-objective scheduling model of cascade reservoirs, a multidimensional evaluation index system encompassing the water–sediment, eco-environment, and socio-economy from a basin system perspective was constructed. A multi-attribute decision-making method based on the modified cumulative prospect theory (MCPT) was then proposed, enabling the evaluation of both single and multiple reservoirs while also supporting scheduling program decisions for various scenarios. The MCPT was applied to the joint scheduling decision making of the Sanmenxia-Xiaolangdi cascade reservoir for multiple typical years in the Yellow River Basin. The results indicated a strong competition between sediment discharge and power generation targets, whereas ecological and power generation targets exhibited a weaker competition. Furthermore, the range and distribution characteristics of the modified whole prospect value (MWPV) varied among the three typical years with sediment discharge, power generation, and ecological water scarcity rate contributing the most significantly to MWPV. The optimal scheduling schemes for abundant, normal, and dry water years were identified as S136, S98, and S345, respectively, all aligned with actual scheduling practices. Compared with conventional decision-making methods, MCPT demonstrated superior sensitivity and suitability for scenarios that require the selection of numerous schemes. These findings offer valuable insights into the coordinated development of water–sediment, eco-environment, and socio-economy within the watershed.