Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System

Abstract

The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the globe. Such Arctic amplification rapidly changes hydrometeorological conditions with consequences for the structuring of cold-adapted terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Arctic ecosystems, which have a relatively small buffering capacity, are particularly susceptible to hydrometeorological regime shifts thus frequently undergo system-scale transitions. Abrupt ecosystem changes are often triggered by disturbances and extreme events that shift the ecosystem state beyond its buffering threshold capacity thus irreversibly changing its functioning (ecosystem tipping). The tipping depends on spatial and temporal scales. At the local scale, feedback between soil organic matter and soil physics could lead to multiple steady states and a tipping from high to low soil carbon storages. On the continental scale, local tipping is smoothed and the changes are rather gradual (no clear tipping threshold). However, due to the centennial timescale of soil carbon and vegetation dynamics, Arctic ecosystems are not in equilibrium with the changing climate, so a tipping could occur at a later time. Earth Observation (EO) is useful for monitoring ongoing changes in permafrost and freshwater systems, in particular extreme events and disturbances, as indicators of a possible tipping point. Lake change observations support gradual rather than abrupt transitions in different permafrost regions until a hydrological tipping point where lake areas start to decline leading to regional drying. Due to floodplain abundance, floodplains should be considered separately when using satellite-derived water extent records to analyse potential tipping behaviour associated with lakes. Reduction in surface water extent, increasing autocorrelation of water level of larger lakes and the impact of extreme events on ground ice can all be observed with satellite data across the Arctic. The analysis of Earth System simulations suggests significant impacts of changes in permafrost hydrology on hydroclimate in the tropics and subtropics, but there is no clear threshold in global temperature for these shifts in hydroclimate.