Radial Rainfall Pattern Changes of Intense Over-Ocean Tropical Cyclones Under Global Warming: Insights From an MRI HighRes CMIP6 Simulation

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI:10.1029/2025GL116146

Jianan Chen, Ralf Toumi, Lujia Zhang, Mengqian Lu, Dazhi Xi, Xiaoming Shi

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Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over-ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center $(T_{o})$ , maximum rainfall $(T_{m})$ , radius of maximum rainfall $(R_{m})$ , and e-folding radius $(R_{e})$ . We find $T_{m}$ strongly correlates $(r = 0.8)$ with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary-layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across different intensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean $T_{m}$ and $T_{o}$ increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while $R_{m}$ and $R_{e}$ shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, $T_{m}$ exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.

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全球变暖背景下强烈海洋上方热带气旋的径向降雨模式变化：来自MRI高分辨率CMIP6模拟的见解

热带气旋（TC）降雨是一种重要的灾害。利用MRI高分辨率耦合模式比对项目第6阶段与SSP5-8.5高排放情景的模拟，研究了全球变暖背景下强烈海洋上空tc的径向降雨模式。这些模式的特征有四个参数：气旋中心雨量T $\左（{T}_{o}\右）$，最大雨量T m $\左（{T}_{m}\右）$，最大降雨量半径R m $\left({R}_{m}\right)$，和e折叠半径R e $\left({R}_{e}\right)$。我们发现T m ${T}_{m}$与水汽辐合强相关（r=0.8）$ (r=0.8)$在不同强度和气候变化条件下，代理边界层最大风次柱湿度除以最大风半径。变暖条件下，平均T m ${T}_{m}$和T o ${T}_{o}$分别增加8.65%/K和8.86%/K；R m ${R}_{m}$和R e ${R}_{e}$分别下降了1.03%/K和1.79%/K。值得注意的是，在增温条件下，T m ${T}_{m}$对TC强度表现出更大的敏感性，其增加主要归因于塔柱湿度的增加。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.