Growth patterns and factors of electric vehicle charging infrastructure for sustainable development

Abstract

Rapid electric vehicle (EV) adoption necessitates efficient charging infrastructure. This study examines the growth patterns of EV charging infrastructure along with their socioeconomic drivers and strategic implications for long-term sustainable development. EV adoption rate (EV%) is used to analyze the growth metrics—Inflection Point, Convergence Point, and Saturation Point—to capture phases of initial expansion, stabilization, and plateauing demand, respectively. This study employs an allocation model to simulate EV charging station's (EVCS) distribution across EV% (5 %–95 %) for 20 Michigan cities, representing diverse metropolitan contexts. Results identify three key benchmarks: the inflection point (EV% = 25 %), where growth accelerates; the convergence point (EV% = 80 %), where growth stabilizes; and the saturation point (EV% = 100 %), where no additional EVCS is needed. Statistical analyses validate these benchmarks while revealing significant variability across urban contexts, driven by factors such as metropolitan density and high-traffic road ratios. Four growth patterns and strategies are discussed: large cities exhibit rapid acceleration, early stabilization, and swift capacity attainment due to high density; medium cities demonstrate slow acceleration, late stabilization, and extended capacity attainment; small cities experience rapid acceleration, early stabilization and swift capacity attainment, relying on transient traffics; and small hubs face slow acceleration, delayed stabilization, and prolonged capacity attainment, relying on external traffic, as transportation nodes.