Toward net-zero cement: linking demand-side measures with plant-level technology strategies

Abstract

Achieving climate goals in the cement sector requires combining supply- and demand-side strategies. To explore this interplay, this study develops a spatially explicit modeling framework that integrates sectoral decarbonization pathways and plant-level optimization. Results show that, in 2060, incorporating demand-side measures—compared to relying solely on supply-side technologies—reduces required carbon capture and storage (CCS)-equipped clinker capacity from 941.9 to 353.8 Mt/year, inter-provincial CO₂ transport from 182.6 to 41.7 Mt/year, and mitigation costs from 246 to 217 CNY/tCO₂. These measures also enable net-negative emissions of -69.0 Mt CO₂/year. Spatial analysis highlights Henan, Hebei, Sichuan, and Anhui provinces as priority regions for CCS deployment across all scenarios, reflecting the existing industrial structure and proximity to geological storage sites. These findings offer practical insights for optimizing plant-level technology choices, strengthening regional coordination, and advancing integrated mitigation policy development.