The ecological impact of agricultural production on CO2 emissions in India: Pathways to sustainable agriculture

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between $C{O}_2$ emissions and agricultural production in India from 1990 to 2023, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Key agricultural indicators analyzed include the Food Production Index (FPI), Cereal Production (CP), Livestock Production Index (LPI), and the value added by Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing (AFF). The results show that on the long run, a 1 % increase in FPI leads to a 7.86 unit increase in $C{O}_2$ emissions per capita, while a 1 % increase in livestock production results in a 3.28 unit decrease in $C{O}_2$ emissions per capita. In the short run, a similar increase in food production and livestock production also influences $C{O}_2$ emissions, with notable but varying impacts over time. These findings underline the environmental trade-offs between food security and $C{O}_2$ emissions, emphasizing the need for sustainable agricultural practices. This research contributes to existing literature by utilizing a broad set of agricultural indicators and robust ARDL analysis to examine both short- and long-term effects, providing a more comprehensive understanding of agricultural sustainability. The study was prompted by India's rapid agricultural growth, driven by its growing population and economic expansion, which has raised significant environmental concerns. Unlike prior research that often takes a generalized or global approach, this study offers an India-specific analysis that captures the country's distinct socio-economic and ecological conditions. By focusing on nationally relevant agricultural indicators and sustainability challenges, the research provides context-sensitive insights that can support effective and targeted policy design. The findings highlight the importance of policies that align agricultural productivity with sustainability, supporting the UN Sustainable Development Goals on climate action and food security.