Mitigating Ukraine’s looming electricity crisis

Abstract

The ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are causing massive power outages. Ukraine’s electricity system is on the brink of collapse, with approximately 70% of its pre-war power generation capacity lost. Model projections indicate that over the course of 12 months from summer 2024 on, load shedding will be required for 7,900 of the 8,760 h in the year (90% of time), with deficits exceeding 4,000 MW for more than 1,000 h and peak shortfalls reaching up to 6,500 MW—about one-third of national peak demand. Technical solutions to address this crisis exist; however, their rapid implementation requires substantial resources and a high level of coordination. Our analysis shows that restoring half of the damaged capacity, enhancing cross-border transfer capacity – specifically by adding an additional 500 MW from Poland – and installing quickly deployable, decentralized generation capacities could drastically reduce load shedding. To achieve these rapid improvements, we propose establishing an “energy situation room” to centralize real-time data, streamline coordination among domestic and international stakeholders, and facilitate targeted investments by local and private actors. This coordinated approach is essential to mitigate the impending energy crisis and bolster Ukraine’s energy resilience ahead of the critical winter period.