Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region

Abstract

Challenges in developing climate adaptation strategies arise from the uncertainty and fragmentation of climate change knowledge, as well as the involvement of many actors with varying values and interests. This study, using a system perspective approach, conducted through a case study in Sardinia, Italy—a prominent Mediterranean region—focused on four agricultural systems: (1) intensive dairy cattle, (2) extensive dairy sheep, (3) horticulture, and (4) rice. The aim was to examine past, present, and future climate changes, the evolution of these agricultural systems, climate impacts, and response behaviors. The findings reveal the annual mean daily maximum (TXm_CF ​= ​+0.13 ​°C/decade and TXm_SL ​= ​+0.27 ​°C/decade) and are expected to continue rising both intermediate $\left({TNm}_{45}=+1.60°C\right)$ and business-as-usual scenarios $\left({TNm}_{85}=+2.43°C\right)$ with a rate of $+0.17°C/decade$ and $+0.26°C/decade$ respectively, along with the frequency of hot days and heatwaves. The four agricultural systems have evolved differently in response to socio-environmental changes. Farmers perceived climate variability and its impacts on their systems in varied ways, leading to different responses to future climate. Intensive farming systems were found to have more future adaptation perspectives to climate variability than traditional extensive systems, due to differences in socio-cultural and technological contexts. This highlights the need to strengthen farmers' adaptive capacities in managing traditional systems, along with their biodiversity and cultural knowledge, to help preserve globally significant agricultural heritage. The research also revealed the importance of collective adaptation responses at multiple levels that could be translated into policies and practices to enhance adaptive capacities of agricultural systems.