Study on the impact of multi-source uncertainty on the operation of inter-basin water transfer projects and adaptive response strategies

Abstract

Joint adaptive regulation of water source areas under multi-source uncertainties is key to the efficient operation of inter-basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs). A novel model to quantify the impacts and countermeasures of IBWTPs operations under multi-uncertainty scenarios, was proposed to address the problem of adaptive regulation. This paper focused on the water source area reservoir group of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Valley Water Diversion Project (HTWDP). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and three-dimensional Copula functions were used to construct multi-uncertainty scenarios and to quantify the impacts of uncertainties on water resource transfer and power generation during reservoir operations. Additionally, a framework of adaptive simulation–optimization operation model based on multi-uncertainties and hedging rules (AOMU) was established to balance multi objectives of water resource transfer, power generation, and energy consumption under adverse inflow conditions. The results showed (1) significant correlations among inflow, adjustable water volume, and the water resource demand of the HTWDP, allowing the construction of multi-uncertainty scenarios, and (2) maintenance of an average annual water resource transfer volume at 1.35 to 1.52 billion m³, with a 9.2% increase, under multi-source uncertainties. However, the average energy consumption increased by 41.1%, while the average power generation decreased by 5.2%. (3) After optimization, a 14% reduction in total energy consumption and a 2.76% increase in power generation were achieved, while the annual water transfer volume was maintained over 1.3 billion m³ under adverse conditions. This paper provided valuable insight for the effective management of uncertainty risks of IBWTPs while balancing historical and future applicability, and for the optimization of water resource transfers and distribution schemes in the source area.