Comparative drought analysis in Amasya and Merzifon with ZSI, PNI and NDI under transitional climatic conditions

Abstract

Drought is a recurring global problem characterised by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters, causing significant damage to both the natural environment and life. The onset of a drought is characterised by a meteorological drought, which is defined as a decrease in precipitation. The present study investigates the meteorological drought experienced by Amasya and Merzifon, which are located within the transition zone between the Black Sea and continental climates in Türkiye. The drought analysis utilised the ZSI, the PNI and the NDI which is a metric employed to quantify drought. Furthermore, the temporal trends of precipitation, temperature and drought values were investigated using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis. The Drought Indices (DIs) identified significant dry years in 1964–1966, 1974–1975, 1981–1982, 1984, 1986, 1989–1990, 1994, 1999, 2001–2003, 2006–2007, 2011, 2013–2015, and 2017–2021. The assessment revealed that the ZSI, the PNI and NDI performed similarly in terms of identifying drought. The trend analysis results indicate a rising trend in precipitation and temperatures. While ZSI and PNI show an increasing trend, NDI also tends to decrease due to the effect of temperature. The results of both the drought and trend analyses suggest that temperature plays a more influential role in the regional climate compared to other meteorological parameters.The findings reveal the historical development of droughts in the region and their effects on the region's environment with different drought indices. The findings herein have the potential to provide a scientific foundation for the management of local drought conditions. It is posited that by implementing preventative measures and formulating suitable strategies, the likelihood of significant drought-related problems can be substantially mitigated.