Evaluating the energy transition for Kuwait: Modeling Kuwait’s energy future and decarbonization challenges

Abstract

The energy transition for Kuwait, deeply reliant upon oil exports, poses complex challenges while offering potential opportunities. Renewable energy and small modular reactors (SMRs) offer the potential to diversify energy sources, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. This study examines how various energy technologies—nuclear power, renewables, carbon capture, and desalination—could interact to meet future energy and environmental goals. The benefits of incorporating SMRs for both power generation and desalination, simultaneously addressing Kuwait's energy and water needs while supporting carbon emission reduction efforts, are examined. To simulate Kuwait's energy future, this study employed the MESSAGE model to evaluate scenarios ranging from Kuwait’s existing policy of pure fossil fuel reliance to ambitious carbon reduction. Results indicate that investments in renewable energy and SMRs offer significant long-term economic and environmental advantages, although initial costs are higher compared to continued reliance on fossil fuels. Kuwait must align its energy policies with its sustainability goals while balancing economic, social, and environmental impacts.