Surface and Subsurface Compound Marine Heatwave and Biogeochemical Extremes Under Climate Change

Abstract

Marine species are increasingly threatened by extreme and compound events, as warming, deoxygenation, and acidification unfold. Yet, the surface and especially the subsurface distribution and evolution of such compound events remain poorly understood. We present the current and projected distributions of compound marine heatwave (MHW), low oxygen (LOX), and high acidity (OAX) events throughout the water column, using observation-based data from 2004 to 2019 and large ensemble Earth system model simulations from 1890 to 2100. Our findings reveal that compound MHW-OAX and OAX-LOX events are prevalent in the low to mid latitudes at the ocean surface. At 200 and 600 m, MHW-OAX and MHW-LOX events are frequent in the high latitudes and parts of the tropics, while OAX-LOX events occur globally. Subsurface compound events are often associated with vertical displacements of water masses, with the climatological vertical gradients of ecosystem stressors typically explaining their occurrence patterns. Projections show a strong rise in compound event frequency over the historical period and under continued global warming, primarily driven by shifts in mean oceanic conditions. The portion of the top 2,000 m affected by extreme or compound events rises from 20$\%$ to 98$\%$ under 2°C of global warming in a high emissions scenario using a preindustrial baseline, and to 30$\%$ using a shifting-mean baseline. However, physical and biogeochemical changes may also lead to regional decreases in subsurface events, highlighting complexities in how warming, deoxygenation, and acidification unfold in the ocean interior. Increasing compound event frequency poses a major threat to marine ecosystems, potentially disrupting food webs and biodiversity.