Angry together or agitated alone? The role of social capital in the geographies of discontent

Abstract

Research on the spatial variation in ‘populist’ and ‘anti-establishment’ voting focuses on the role of ‘left behind places’, where these parties are particularly successful in regions that have been left behind economically or culturally. Applying this perspective to the German case, this paper examines the spatial distribution of ‘populist’ and ‘anti-establishment’ voting. Using micro-data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and official regional statistics at NUTS 3 level, we construct a multilevel model to investigates the roles of socio-economic and demographic contextual and individual level determinants with the intention to vote for AfD, die Linke, and radical right or ‘anti-establishment’ parties in general in the 2017 federal election. Specifically, we explore how social capital – encompassing interpersonal relations and civic engagement – affects the likelihood of voting for these parties. Although social capital is commonly thought of as a shielding effect against ‘populist’ and ‘anti-establishment’ voting and strengthening political representation, its influence on anti-establishment voting remains vague. Based on original survey data from 2017, the results show that indicators of interpersonal relations and civic engagement in networks of civil society, specific forms of social capital, seem to play an important role in affecting voting behaviour, revealing that civically involved individuals are more likely to support established democratic parties, rather than voting for a ‘populist’ or ‘anti-establishment’ party.