Changing climate and socioeconomic factors contribute to global antimicrobial resistance

Abstract

Climate change poses substantial challenges in containing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from a One Health perspective. Using 4,502 AMR surveillance records involving 32 million tested isolates from 101 countries (1999–2022), we analyzed the impact of socioeconomic and environmental factors on AMR. We also established forecast models based on several scenarios, considering antimicrobial consumption reduction, sustainable development initiatives and different shared socioeconomic pathways under climate change. Our findings reveal growing AMR disparities between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries under different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. By 2050, compared with the baseline, sustainable development efforts showed the most prominent effect by reducing AMR prevalence by 5.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0–26.6%), surpassing the effect of antimicrobial consumption reduction. Key contributors include reducing out-of-pocket health expenses (3.6% (95% CI: −0.5 to 21.4%)); comprehensive immunization coverage (1.2% (95% CI: −0.1% to 8.2%)); adequate health investments (0.2% (95% CI: 0.0–2.4%)) and universal access to water, sanitation and hygiene services (0.1% (95% CI: 0.0–0.4%)). These findings highlight the importance of sustainable development strategies as the most effective approach to help low- and middle-income countries address the dual challenges of climate change and AMR.