Effects of export growth on the location choices of migrant workers: Evidence from China

Abstract

This paper examines the interregional migration responses to the export shocks in a middle-income country. We present the evidence that the export growth in China has significant impacts on interregional migration. Using 2005 Chinese Population Census data, we estimate the impacts of export growth on the location choices of the migrant workers across prefectures. The results imply that for a 1000 USD increase in export growth per worker in a prefecture, the probability of migrant workers choosing the prefecture increases significantly by 0.77 percentage points. The effects of export growth have heterogeneity on different education and hukou type groups of migrant workers. We show that the effects are driven by the increases in the mean wage rates and the improvements of job opportunities for migrant workers. Our estimates reveal important trade-offs for prefecture attributes related to the probability of migration.