Fast Warming Over the Mongolian Plateau a Catalyst for Extreme Rainfall Over North China

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events are becoming increasingly severe under a warming climate. North China has experienced several catastrophic rainfall events, of which the rainstorm in 2023 was particularly severe inducing unprecedented damage. Since 1980, the neighboring Mongolian Plateau (MP) has been warming at a rate three times the global average, faster than the surrounding regions. Whether a link exists between extreme rainfall in North China and the fast MP warming is unknown. Here, using global variable-resolution atmospheric model with convection-permitting capability over North China, we find the rapid warming trends, particularly over the MP, are highly conducive to extreme rainfall over North China. In the 2023 case, the fast MP warming induced an anomalous terrestrial high, which in the Western North Pacific Subtropical High created a strong high-pressure system over North China. This system obstructed northeastward movement of Typhoon Doksuri, concentrating moisture supply which prolonged and intensified the extreme.