The Role of Viral Interference in Shaping RSV Epidemics Following the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

IF 4.3 4区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI:10.1111/irv.70111

Ke Li, Deus Thindwa, Daniel M. Weinberger, Virginia E. Pitzer

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Disruptions in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity were observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Given the limited use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, these disruptions provide an opportunity to probe viral interference due to the out-of-season epidemics. The objectives of the study are twofold: to characterize atypical RSV activity in the United States (US) and to explore the mechanisms underlying changes in RSV epidemics following the pandemic.

Methods

Laboratory-confirmed RSV cases across 10 US regions from June 2007 to July 2019 were analyzed. A dynamic time warping method was used to characterize RSV activity in different seasons. A two-pathogen model was constructed to explore viral interference mechanisms. A sampling–importance–resampling method was applied to estimate the effects of viral interference.

Results

We found that RSV activity was reduced following the influenza pandemic in the 2009/10 season across all regions in the US. By contrast, we found an enhanced but delayed RSV epidemic across the US in the 2010/11 season. Using a mathematical model, we explored three potential viral interference mechanisms that could explain the change of RSV activity following the pandemic. The pandemic influenza may interfere with RSV to reduce susceptibility to RSV coinfection, or shorten the RSV infectious period, or decrease RSV infectivity in co-infections.

Conclusions

This study provides statistical evidence for atypical RSV seasons following the influenza pandemic in the US and sheds light on viral interference mechanisms affecting RSV epidemics, offering a model-fitting framework for analyzing surveillance data at the population level.

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2009年H1N1流感大流行后病毒干扰在RSV流行形成中的作用

背景：在2009年流感大流行之后，不同国家观察到呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）活性中断。鉴于非药物干预措施的使用有限，这些中断提供了一个机会来探测由于非季节性流行病造成的病毒干扰。该研究的目的有两个：一是表征美国的非典型RSV活性，二是探索大流行后RSV流行变化的潜在机制。方法对2007年6月至2019年7月美国10个地区实验室确诊的RSV病例进行分析。采用动态时间规整方法对不同季节的RSV活性进行表征。构建双病原体模型探讨病毒干扰机制。采用采样-重要性-重采样方法估计病毒干扰的影响。结果我们发现，在2009/10季节流感大流行之后，美国所有地区的RSV活性都有所降低。相比之下，我们发现在2010/11季节，RSV在美国的流行有所增强，但有所延迟。利用数学模型，我们探索了三种可能的病毒干扰机制，可以解释RSV活性在大流行后的变化。大流行性流感可能干扰RSV，以减少对RSV合并感染的易感性，或缩短RSV感染期，或降低合并感染的RSV传染性。结论本研究为美国流感大流行后的非典型RSV季节提供了统计证据，揭示了影响RSV流行的病毒干扰机制，为分析人群水平的监测数据提供了模型拟合框架。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 医学-病毒学

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.50%

发文量

120

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is the official journal of the International Society of Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Diseases - an independent scientific professional society - dedicated to promoting the prevention, detection, treatment, and control of influenza and other respiratory virus diseases. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is an Open Access journal. Copyright on any research article published by Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is retained by the author(s). Authors grant Wiley a license to publish the article and identify itself as the original publisher. Authors also grant any third party the right to use the article freely as long as its integrity is maintained and its original authors, citation details and publisher are identified.