Predictive Capability of Dual Trajectories of Central Adiposity Indices Combined With Glucose for Cardiovascular Diseases

Abstract

Background

This aimed to quantify the association between dual trajectory patterns combining seven central adiposity (CA) indices and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in adults, and to compare their predictive performance.

Methods

The Kailuan Study, a prospective study initiated in June 2006, included 39 772 adults without pre-existing CVD as of 2010. Dual trajectories of seven CA indices combined with FPG were recorded from 2006 to 2010 to predict CVD risk from 2010 to 2021. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CVD.

Results

During a median follow-up of 11.0 years, 2715 incident CVD events were recorded. Four distinct patterns of CA indices (waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, abdominal volume index, body roundness index) and three distinct patterns of other CA indices (waist-to-hip ratio, conicity index, A body shape index) combined with FPG were identified. Compared with the lowest-risk group, the highest-risk group exhibited a significantly higher CVD risk (adjusted HRs [95% CIs]: 2.41 [2.02–2.86], 2.57 [2.18–3.05], 2.25 [1.92–2.63], 2.35 [2.01–2.73], 2.08 [1.74–2.49], 1.97 [1.72–2.26], 1.81 [1.58–2.07], respectively). Overall, the predictive capabilities were generally similar, with the combination of waist circumference and FPG showing a slightly better predictive performance compared with other patterns.

Conclusions

Distinct patterns of dual trajectories involving seven CA indices combined with FPG were associated with CVD risk. The results suggest that the combination of waist circumference and FPG may have greater clinical significance in predicting CVD risk.