Quantitative attribution analysis of water and sediment changes in the Lower Yellow River (1950–2022) under the influence of climate change and human activities

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI:10.1007/s12665-025-12227-y

Yihao Wen, Haijue Xu, Jinliang Zhang, Yuchuan Bai

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Abstract

Hydrological processes in regional river basins are significantly affected by both global climate change and human activities. This research focuses on analyzing changes in water and sediment dynamics in the lower Yellow River (LYR) while pinpointing the primary factors driving these transformations. The study aims to evaluate the respective contributions of climate change and human interventions to water–sediment interactions, providing insights for optimal water resource and watershed management. Methods such as the Mann–Kendall test and double cumulative curves were employed to explore long-term trends and sudden changes in runoff and sediment transport. The IHA-RVA method was used to conduct a detailed quantitative assessment of water–sediment variability, while Copula functions were employed to model the probability of simultaneous abundance or scarcity of water and sediment. To conduct the attribution analysis, we employed the Budyko framework along with fractal theory to quantify the respective contributions of climate change and human activities to water–sediment variations from 1950 to 2022. The results indicate substantial reductions in annual runoff and sediment transport within the LYR during this time, with overall decreases of 53.03% in runoff and 62.81% in sediment transport. The frequency of synchronous water–sediment events ranged from 56.54% to 67.29%, while asynchronous occurrences varied from 32.71% to 43.46%. Quantitative analysis revealed that human activities accounted for 74.11%–77.02% of the observed changes in runoff and a striking 91.48%–93.63% of sediment transport reductions in the lower Yellow River. These changes were predominantly driven by large-scale initiatives such as the Green for Grain program and the construction of major hydraulic infrastructure, emphasizing the dominant role of anthropogenic interventions over climatic factors in influencing hydrological dynamics. These findings provide important theoretical insights and practical guidance for enhancing soil and water conservation measures and improving regional management strategies in the LYR.

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气候变化和人类活动影响下黄河下游1950-2022年水沙变化的定量归因分析

区域流域的水文过程受到全球气候变化和人类活动的严重影响。本研究的重点是分析黄河下游（LYR）水和泥沙动态的变化，同时找出驱动这些变化的主要因素。研究旨在评估气候变化和人类活动对水沙相互作用的影响，为优化水资源和流域管理提供见解。研究采用了 Mann-Kendall 检验和双累积曲线等方法来探讨径流和泥沙输运的长期趋势和突变。采用 IHA-RVA 方法对水沙变异性进行了详细的定量评估，同时采用 Copula 函数对水沙同时丰沛或稀少的概率进行建模。为了进行归因分析，我们采用了布迪科框架和分形理论，以量化气候变化和人类活动各自对 1950 年至 2022 年水沙变化的贡献。结果表明，这一时期涟水河内的年径流量和沉积物运移量大幅减少，径流量总体减少 53.03%，沉积物运移量总体减少 62.81%。水沙同步事件的频率从 56.54% 到 67.29% 不等，而非同步事件的频率从 32.71% 到 43.46% 不等。定量分析显示，在黄河下游观测到的径流变化中，人类活动占 74.11%-77.02%，在泥沙输移减少中，人类活动占 91.48%-93.63%。这些变化主要是由诸如 "绿色换粮 "计划和大型水利基础设施建设等大规模举措推动的，强调了人为干预在影响水文动态方面的主导作用超过了气候因素。这些发现为加强涟水河水土保持措施和改进区域管理策略提供了重要的理论见解和实践指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environmental Earth Sciences 环境科学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

3.60%

发文量

494

审稿时长

8.3 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Earth Sciences is an international multidisciplinary journal concerned with all aspects of interaction between humans, natural resources, ecosystems, special climates or unique geographic zones, and the earth: Water and soil contamination caused by waste management and disposal practices Environmental problems associated with transportation by land, air, or water Geological processes that may impact biosystems or humans Man-made or naturally occurring geological or hydrological hazards Environmental problems associated with the recovery of materials from the earth Environmental problems caused by extraction of minerals, coal, and ores, as well as oil and gas, water and alternative energy sources Environmental impacts of exploration and recultivation – Environmental impacts of hazardous materials Management of environmental data and information in data banks and information systems Dissemination of knowledge on techniques, methods, approaches and experiences to improve and remediate the environment In pursuit of these topics, the geoscientific disciplines are invited to contribute their knowledge and experience. Major disciplines include: hydrogeology, hydrochemistry, geochemistry, geophysics, engineering geology, remediation science, natural resources management, environmental climatology and biota, environmental geography, soil science and geomicrobiology.