Resurgence in focus: Covid-19 dynamics and optimal control frameworks

Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI:10.1016/j.gloepi.2025.100200

Evans O. Omorogie , Kolade M. Owolabi , Bola T. Olabode , Tunde T. Yusuf , Edson Pindza

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Abstract

The resurgence of Covid-19, accompanied by various variants of the virus, highlights the fact that Covid-19 is still present within the population. The study proposed a Covid-19 dynamical model for analyzing the effect of vaccination and the continuous use of non-medical interventions for addressing Covid-19 transmission dynamics. The Lyaponov function and Jacobian matrix techniques were used to analyze the stability of the model's equilibria. The model was transformed into a problem of optimal control with time-dependent variables, aimed at managing efforts to prevent the spread of Covid-19. Numerical assessments were deployed to assess the effect of vaccination and the continuous use of non-medical intervention strategies to mitigate the spread of Covid-19. The global sensitivity analysis of the model was used to detect the key parameters influencing the behavior of the model. In addition, numerical results showed a significant decrease in the basic reproduction rate

(ℛ_{0})

when implementing

σ

and

ξ

, either separately or together. The optimal control results suggested that the control measures should be consistently enforced without any relaxation.

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30, 93C95, 49 N90, 34H05, 37 N25.

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重新聚焦：Covid-19动态和最优控制框架

Covid-19的死灰复燃以及该病毒的各种变体，突显了Covid-19仍然存在于人群中的事实。该研究提出了一个Covid-19动态模型，用于分析疫苗接种和持续使用非医疗干预措施对解决Covid-19传播动态的影响。利用Lyaponov函数和雅可比矩阵技术分析了模型平衡点的稳定性。该模型被转化为具有时间相关变量的最优控制问题，旨在管理防止Covid-19传播的努力。采用数值评估来评估疫苗接种和持续使用非医疗干预策略以减轻Covid-19传播的效果。利用模型的全局灵敏度分析，检测影响模型行为的关键参数。此外，数值结果表明，单独或同时实现σ和ξ时，基本繁殖率的显著降低。最优控制结果表明，控制措施应始终如一地执行，不得放松。2010数学学科分类：92D30、93C95、49 N90、34H05、37 N25。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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