Would the occurrence of a Maunder-like solar minimum reverse the observed climate change?

Marcio Cataldi , Rafael Rangel , Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves , Sonia Jerez , Juan Pedro Montávez , Amar Halifa-Marín , Luiz Landau
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Abstract

This study examines a scenario combining a prolonged solar minimum, like the historical Maunder Minimum, with the increased CO2 emissions characteristic of the industrial era. Two scenarios were developed in NCAR/CESM 2.0 implemented at LAMMOC/UFF to create simulations from 1850 to 2000, it contrasts differing radiative forcings from 1950 onward—one reflecting actual observed changes, including rising CO2 levels, and the other simulating a decrease in solar output like that during the Maunder Minimum but with continued CO2 growth. The results were validated against ERA5 data and 20th-century reanalysis. By calculating meridional averages at 30-degree latitude intervals, distinct regional impacts of the Maunder Minimum were identified. Notably the simulated Maunder Minimum reduced global warming by and even mitigated 70 % in HS in the last decade of the 20th century. However, this attenuation was lower in the HN, especially in the 30–60N region where no attenuation was observed.
蒙德太阳极小期的出现会逆转观测到的气候变化吗?
本研究考察了这样一种情景:太阳极小期延长(如历史上的蒙德极小期)与工业时代特征的二氧化碳排放增加相结合。在LAMMOC/UFF实施的NCAR/CESM 2.0中开发了两种情景来创建1850年至2000年的模拟,它对比了1950年以后不同的辐射强迫——一种反映了实际观测到的变化,包括二氧化碳水平的上升,另一种模拟了太阳输出的减少,就像蒙德极小期那样,但二氧化碳持续增长。结果通过ERA5数据和20世纪的再分析得到了验证。通过计算30度纬度间隔的经向平均值,确定了蒙德极小期的明显区域影响。值得注意的是,模拟的蒙德极小期在20世纪最后10年减缓了全球变暖,甚至减缓了70%。然而,这种衰减在HN地区较低,特别是在30-60N地区,没有观察到衰减。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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