Marcio Cataldi , Rafael Rangel , Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves , Sonia Jerez , Juan Pedro Montávez , Amar Halifa-Marín , Luiz Landau
{"title":"Would the occurrence of a Maunder-like solar minimum reverse the observed climate change?","authors":"Marcio Cataldi , Rafael Rangel , Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves , Sonia Jerez , Juan Pedro Montávez , Amar Halifa-Marín , Luiz Landau","doi":"10.1016/j.eve.2025.100068","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines a scenario combining a prolonged solar minimum, like the historical Maunder Minimum, with the increased CO2 emissions characteristic of the industrial era. Two scenarios were developed in NCAR/CESM 2.0 implemented at LAMMOC/UFF to create simulations from 1850 to 2000, it contrasts differing radiative forcings from 1950 onward—one reflecting actual observed changes, including rising CO2 levels, and the other simulating a decrease in solar output like that during the Maunder Minimum but with continued CO2 growth. The results were validated against ERA5 data and 20th-century reanalysis. By calculating meridional averages at 30-degree latitude intervals, distinct regional impacts of the Maunder Minimum were identified. Notably the simulated Maunder Minimum reduced global warming by and even mitigated 70 % in HS in the last decade of the 20th century. However, this attenuation was lower in the HN, especially in the 30–60N region where no attenuation was observed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100516,"journal":{"name":"Evolving Earth","volume":"3 ","pages":"Article 100068"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Evolving Earth","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950117225000123","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study examines a scenario combining a prolonged solar minimum, like the historical Maunder Minimum, with the increased CO2 emissions characteristic of the industrial era. Two scenarios were developed in NCAR/CESM 2.0 implemented at LAMMOC/UFF to create simulations from 1850 to 2000, it contrasts differing radiative forcings from 1950 onward—one reflecting actual observed changes, including rising CO2 levels, and the other simulating a decrease in solar output like that during the Maunder Minimum but with continued CO2 growth. The results were validated against ERA5 data and 20th-century reanalysis. By calculating meridional averages at 30-degree latitude intervals, distinct regional impacts of the Maunder Minimum were identified. Notably the simulated Maunder Minimum reduced global warming by and even mitigated 70 % in HS in the last decade of the 20th century. However, this attenuation was lower in the HN, especially in the 30–60N region where no attenuation was observed.