Would the occurrence of a Maunder-like solar minimum reverse the observed climate change?

Abstract

This study examines a scenario combining a prolonged solar minimum, like the historical Maunder Minimum, with the increased CO2 emissions characteristic of the industrial era. Two scenarios were developed in NCAR/CESM 2.0 implemented at LAMMOC/UFF to create simulations from 1850 to 2000, it contrasts differing radiative forcings from 1950 onward—one reflecting actual observed changes, including rising CO2 levels, and the other simulating a decrease in solar output like that during the Maunder Minimum but with continued CO2 growth. The results were validated against ERA5 data and 20th-century reanalysis. By calculating meridional averages at 30-degree latitude intervals, distinct regional impacts of the Maunder Minimum were identified. Notably the simulated Maunder Minimum reduced global warming by and even mitigated 70 % in HS in the last decade of the 20th century. However, this attenuation was lower in the HN, especially in the 30–60N region where no attenuation was observed.