Estimating the final fatalities using early reported death count from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, MS 8.0–7.9 earthquake doublet and revising the estimates over time

Abstract

Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life, necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities. Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decision-making. This study using the February 6, 2023, M_S 8.0 and M_S 7.9 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities. An early Quick Rough Estimate (QRE) based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye (AFAD) is conducted, and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available. The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31 384–56 475 based on the "the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3″ rule, which incorporates the reported final deaths 50 500. The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation (QLAE) ​method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths. The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 ​hr after the M_S 8.0 earthquake. In addition, additional earthquakes such as May 12, 2008, M_S 8.1 Wenchuan earthquake (China), September 8, 2023, M_S 7.2 Al Haouz earthquake (Morocco), November 3, 2023, M_S 5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake, December 18, 2023, M_S 6.1 Jishishan earthquake (China), January 1, 2024, M_S 7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake (Japan) and August 8, 2023, Maui, Hawaii, fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model. The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an MS 7.4 earthquake. These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation (QLARM) and Prompt Assessment of Global.