Record-High Precipitation Over Eastern Europe Induced by Tropical-Subtropical North Atlantic Warming in Late Fall 2023

Abstract

Eastern Europe experienced record-high precipitation in late fall (October–November) 2023, with an area-weighted anomaly reaching up to 86 mm, >80% of its climatological precipitation. This study examines the drivers of this anomalous event using observations-based statistical analyses, and atmospheric model experiments. Our results reveal that exceptional warming in the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic (TSNA), characterized by a warm blob off North Africa reaching 1.2 K, played a crucial role. The TSNA warming induced a low-pressure anomaly over the mid-latitude North Atlantic and Europe, facilitating moisture transport and convergence toward Eastern Europe, leading to heavy rainfall. While the concurrent El Niño event and positive Indian Ocean Dipole may contribute to this process, their impacts were relatively modest compared to TSNA warming. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring and predicting TSNA SST anomaly to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts and develop effective adaptation strategies for Europe in the context of climate change.