International comparison, forecast and promotion strategy of shellfish consumption in China

Abstract

Clarifying shellfish consumption trends domestically and internationally is key to balancing industry supply and demand. Using FAO and World Bank data, this study compares per capita shellfish consumption in China and other major countries from 1976 to 2022, identifying trends and proposing targeted strategies. Key findings include: (1) In 2022, China’s per capita consumption reached 10.52 kg, significantly higher than 1976 and 2000 levels and 16.44 times the global average, though lower than in Chile and South Korea; (2) In terms of sub-categories, China’s per capita consumption of oysters, clams, and scallops is well above global averages, while abalone and mussels have room for growth; (3) ARIMA (0,1,1) model can simulate and predict the apparent consumption and trend of shellfish per capita in China, with per capita consumption expected to reach 11.21 kg in 2025 and 16.77 kg in 2050;(4) Under the open economy, China’s shellfish consumption is primarily supported by domestic supply, while imports mainly serve to supplement high-quality products and meet the demands of the domestic premium shellfish market. In the context of insufficient domestic industrial upgrading and limited supply of high-quality products, the import of premium, fresh shellfish products is expected to increase in the future. It is recommended to accelerate the upgrading of the domestic shellfish industry, promote market-oriented processing, and cultivate product branding to enhance demand dynamics, drive high-quality industrial development, and support the implementation of major national strategies.