Policy rules and the inflation surge: The case of the ECB

IF 2.1 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-14 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112338

Balint Tatar , Volker Wieland

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank. It focuses on versions of the Taylor (1993) and Orphanides and Wieland (2013) rules. Rules that respond to recent outcomes of HICP core or domestic inflation data called for raising interest rates in 2021—well ahead of the rate hikes of the ECB. Thus, simple outcome-based rules deserve more attention in the ECB's monetary policy strategy. Interestingly, the rules support the shift to policy easing in 2024.

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政策规则与通胀飙升：以欧洲央行为例

本文研究了货币政策规则在欧元区通胀飙升和随后下降期间的影响，并将其与欧洲央行的利率决定进行了比较。它侧重于Taylor（1993）和Orphanides and Wieland（2013）规则的版本。根据近期HICP核心数据或国内通胀数据的结果，相关规则要求在2021年加息——远早于欧洲央行加息。因此，在欧洲央行的货币政策策略中，基于结果的简单规则值得更多关注。有趣的是，这些规定支持在2024年转向宽松政策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.