Air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in Chinese cities: insights from a multi-city analysis during the pandemic’s first wave

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI:10.1038/s41612-025-01042-8

Songtao Wang, Tianyu Liu, Yaqian Su, Jiayuan Hao, Mu Qiao, Suyang Liu

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Abstract

This study investigated the association between air pollutant exposure and COVID-19 mortality using a generalized additive model (GAM) with a negative binomial distribution, analyzing data from 45 Chinese cities. The pollutants assessed were nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃), and particulate matter (PM_2.5). Results showed that a 10 µg/m³ increase in NO₂ was associated with a 28.3% rise in COVID-19 mortality risk (RR = 1.283, 95% CI: 1.143–1.351). PM_2.5 significantly increased mortality risk only in Wuhan (RR = 1.212, 95% CI: 1.110–1.323). In contrast, SO₂ and O₃ were protective, with O₃ reducing mortality risk by up to 11.1% at certain lag periods. Stratified analysis indicated a markedly stronger effect of NO₂ in southeastern regions. These findings highlight the need to address air pollution in pandemic preparedness and call for further research on its regional impacts to guide targeted public health interventions.

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中国城市的空气污染和COVID-19死亡率：来自大流行第一波期间多城市分析的见解

本研究利用负二项分布的广义加性模型（GAM）分析了中国45个城市的数据，探讨了空气污染物暴露与COVID-19死亡率之间的关系。评估的污染物包括二氧化氮（NO2）、二氧化硫（SO2）、臭氧（O3）和颗粒物（PM2.5）。结果显示，NO2浓度每增加10µg/m3， COVID-19死亡风险增加28.3% （RR = 1.283, 95% CI: 1.143-1.351）。PM2.5仅在武汉显著增加死亡风险（RR = 1.212, 95% CI: 1.110 ~ 1.323）。相比之下，二氧化硫和臭氧具有保护作用，在某些滞后期，臭氧可将死亡风险降低11.1%。分层分析表明，东南地区NO2的影响明显更强。这些调查结果突出表明，有必要在大流行防范中解决空气污染问题，并呼吁进一步研究其区域影响，以指导有针对性的公共卫生干预措施。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.