Assessing the driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions of the transport sector in Central Europe

Abstract

The transportation sector in Central Europe, encompassing Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria, has emerged as a significant contributor to CO₂ emissions, posing a critical challenge to the region’s climate goals. This study addresses the urgent need to understand the driving forces behind these emissions from 2001 to 2021, employing the Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to decompose the changes into GDP growth, energy intensity, carbon intensity, and population effects. The analysis reveals that GDP growth, particularly in Poland and Slovakia, has been the dominant factor driving the increase in CO₂ emissions. However, the study also identifies successful reductions in energy and carbon intensity in Austria and Hungary, partially offsetting the emissions growth linked to their economic expansion. Despite these advancements, the slow transition to cleaner energy in Poland and Slovakia highlights the need for more aggressive policies. The minimal impact of population changes on emissions further underscores the importance of focusing on energy efficiency and renewable energy adoption. The findings suggest that to achieve substantial CO₂ reductions, Central European countries must implement targeted strategies tailored to their specific conditions. Future research should explore next-generation battery technologies, hydrogen fuel cells for heavy-duty transport, and integrating renewable energy in transportation systems. The implications of this work point to the necessity of a concerted effort in policy innovation and technological development to ensure a sustainable transportation future in Central Europe.