Examining the effect of public transit accessibility on recidivism among underage driving offenders: A multilevel zero-inflated model approach

Abstract

Public transit is widely recognized as essential for individuals with mobility disadvantages; however, its impact on underage driving (UAD) recidivism remains underexplored. This study employs multilevel zero-inflated models to examine whether public transit accessibility reduces the likelihood of naïve UAD offenders becoming repeat offenders. Utilizing an empirical dataset of 51,454 UAD offenders in Taiwan over an eight-year period (2014–2021), the analysis results support the hypothesis that greater accessibility to the bus transit network significantly decreases the likelihood of recidivism among naïve offenders, particularly among older adolescents. The findings also reveal that UAD offenders residing in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods are more likely to engage in subsequent offenses compared to those in more prosperous areas, underscoring the importance of enhancing transit services from a social equity perspective. Additionally, consistent with patterns observed in recidivism for other traffic offenses, male offenders and individuals with prior UAD violations are at a higher risk of repeat offenses. These results emphasize the need for targeted interventions within graduated driver licensing programs. This study highlights the significance of early identification and intervention for UAD offenders, particularly through differentiated approaches for naïve and repeat offenders. The proposed multilevel zero-inflated modeling approach proves valuable in distinguishing between offender types and offers potential for application in other traffic recidivism contexts.