Ocean Carbon Export Flux Projections in CMIP6 Earth System Models Across Multiple Export Depth Horizons

Abstract

The ocean's biological carbon pump (BCP) plays a key role in global carbon cycling by transporting biologically fixed carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. Prior analyses of the BCP in Earth System Model (ESM) simulations have typically evaluated particulate organic carbon (POC) flux at a fixed export depth horizon of 100 m. However, this overlooks spatial and temporal variations in the depth that sinking POC must penetrate to reach the mesopelagic or to sequester carbon from the atmosphere on climate-relevant timescales. We use depth-resolved POC flux output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs to compare global and regional changes in POC flux at five export depth horizons −100 m, the base of the euphotic zone (EZ depth), the particle compensation depth (PCD), the maximum annual mixed layer depth (MLD_max), and 1,000 m—under the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. We also examine the relationship among net primary production, export efficiency from the surface ocean, and transfer efficiency to depth in key regions of the ocean, identifying model- and region-specific variations in the mechanistic drivers of POC flux changes in the deep ocean. Globally and spatially, trends in POC flux magnitude and decline are similar at the four surface export depth horizons, and multimodel variability in POC flux change by 2100 is greatest at the 1,000 m export depth horizon (+4% to −55%). This indicates the importance of improving model parameterizations of transfer efficiency and POC flux to the deep ocean.