Study on tariff impact on new energy vehicle exports: Evidence from China's industrial chain perspective

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of destination import tariffs and industrial chain development on China's exports of new energy vehicles (NEVs). It establishes an evaluation system for industrial development and a dynamic assessment model based on the entropy weight method, the virtual worst solution TOPSIS and gray relational degree. The study focuses on China's exports of five types of NEVs to 25 countries from 2015 to 2021. The findings indicate that higher import tariffs reduce NEV exports, but the development of the downstream industry helps mitigate this negative effect, while the overall development of the industrial chain boosts exports. Specifically, the growth of the midstream industry promotes electric vehicle exports, although tariffs have the opposite effect. Interestingly, neither tariffs nor industrial development significantly affect the export of hybrid vehicles. For developed countries, import tariffs are positively associated with NEV exports, with the development of the midstream industry having the greatest impact on export levels. In contrast, for developing countries, the growth of the downstream industry alleviates the negative impact of tariffs.