Hazard assessment of compound drought and heat events on summer maize from agricultural and meteorological perspectives

IF 5.9 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural Water Management Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI:10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109479

Qing Li , Peijuan Wang , Yang Li , Junxian Tang , Xin Li , Yuanda Zhang , Dianchen Han , Qi Wang , Yuncheng Zhao , Zaiqiang Yang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Hazard assessment serves as the foundation for agricultural climate disaster risk assessment. As the impact of compound drought and heat events on agricultural production continues to intensity, this study constructed a hazard assessment model using a compound magnitude index improved by pre-factors and joint probabilities fitted with optimal copula functions. The aim was to compare and analyze the evolution characteristics and hazards of compound meteorological drought and heat events (CMDHEs) and compound agricultural drought and heat events (CADHEs) during different growth stages of summer maize. The results show that, across different growth stages of summer maize, SPRI and STCI, as well as SPI and STCI, exhibit negative correlations in different decades, with a stronger negative correlation between SPRI and STCI during the tasseling to maturity stage from 2011 to 2023. The pre-effect of meteorological drought in CMDHEs is higher than that of agricultural drought and heat in CADHEs. Our study also revealed a significant upward trend in CADHEs and CMDHEs since 2013 and 2017 during the tasseling to flowering stage. From sowing to tasseling, the hazard levels of CADHEs and CMDHEs were higher in the central and southern parts of Hebei Province and most regions of Henan Province. Compared to CMDHEs, CADHEs exhibit higher frequency and greater hazards across different growth stages of summer maize. These findings provide valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China, ensuring food security and agricultural production.

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从农业和气象角度评价夏玉米干热复合事件的危害

危害评估是农业气候灾害风险评估的基础。随着旱热复合事件对农业生产的影响持续加剧，本研究利用前因子和拟合最优联结函数的联合概率改进的复合震级指数构建了灾害评价模型。比较分析夏玉米不同生育期气象复合干热事件（CMDHEs）和农业复合干热事件（CADHEs）的演变特征及危害。结果表明，在夏玉米不同生育期，SPRI与STCI、SPI与STCI在不同年代际呈负相关，其中2011 ~ 2023年抽雄至成熟期SPRI与STCI负相关较强；气象干旱的预效应高于农业干旱和高温的预效应。我们的研究还发现，自2013年和2017年以来，在抽雄至开花期，CADHEs和CMDHEs呈显著上升趋势。从播种到抽雄，河北省中南部和河南省大部分地区CADHEs和cmhhs的危害程度较高。与cmhhs相比，CADHEs在夏玉米不同生育期发生频率更高，危害更大。这些研究结果为黄淮海平原夏季玉米防灾减灾、保障粮食安全和农业生产提供了有价值的参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Agricultural Water Management 农林科学-农艺学

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

14.90%

发文量

648

审稿时长

4.9 months

期刊介绍： Agricultural Water Management publishes papers of international significance relating to the science, economics, and policy of agricultural water management. In all cases, manuscripts must address implications and provide insight regarding agricultural water management.