Price shocks and associated policy responses stemming from the Russia-Ukraine War and other global crises: Evidence from six African countries

Abstract

Recent years have brought a deluge of shocks to agrifood systems, particularly for low- and middle-income countries. These include the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine War, and manifestations of climate change, among others. This paper quantitatively explores the nature of price shocks in fuel, fertilizer, and foods since 2019 and qualitatively characterizes the policy responses undertaken in six African countries, namely Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Results confirm that prices for key foods (maize, rice, wheat, and vegetable oil), fuel, and fertilizer increased markedly in all six countries, with the most rapid increases arriving in 2022. We completed a desk review of relevant policy responses and conducted 104 semi-structured interviews with policy makers and other key stakeholders across the six countries to understand their experiences with, and perspectives on, policy responses to recent and ongoing shocks. These interviews surfaced several themes: (1) Policies exhibit an intensifying emphasis since 2020 on self-sufficiency in food and fertilizer; (2) Though subsidies and tariff reductions are a readily available policy response, the fiscal burden can be quite high; (3) Policy responses to shocks sometimes lack coherence, with some policies offsetting the others’ impacts; (4) While recent shocks triggered some trade realignment, they have not stimulated increased within-Africa (intra-regional) trade; and (5) Policy makers exhibit an increasing appreciation for organic fertilizer and increasingly recognize climate change and associated environmental stress when shaping fertilizer policy. Altogether, these findings underscore a need for more discourse on the most fitting balance between national self-sufficiency and participation in international trade.