The future of urban cycling: A predictive framework for climate change

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104722

Xudong Wang, Eduardo Adame Valenzuela, Chenglong You, Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen , Lijun Sun , Luis F. Miranda-Moreno

{"title":"The future of urban cycling: A predictive framework for climate change","authors":"Xudong Wang, Eduardo Adame Valenzuela, Chenglong You, Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen , Lijun Sun , Luis F. Miranda-Moreno","doi":"10.1016/j.trd.2025.104722","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban cycling plays a vital role in sustainable urban mobility. It reduces the environmental impact of transportation and promotes public health. While urban cycling is key to combating climate change, future climate conditions may significantly influence active transportation. In this context, this study proposes a predictive framework that integrates weather-based ridership models with downscaled climate projections. The framework aims to predict cycling demand under various climate scenarios. Using Montréal as a case study, we explore how projected climate changes could affect urban cycling in a cold-climate North American city. By the 2050s, Montréal is expected to experience warmer and drier conditions, with ridership projected to increase by 8.7% to 19.9% across different scenarios. The most notable growth is anticipated during shoulder months, such as April, October, and November, due to more favorable weather conditions. These findings emphasize the need to adapt bicycle infrastructure and services to accommodate evolving demand in a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23277,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","volume":"143 ","pages":"Article 104722"},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920925001324","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Urban cycling plays a vital role in sustainable urban mobility. It reduces the environmental impact of transportation and promotes public health. While urban cycling is key to combating climate change, future climate conditions may significantly influence active transportation. In this context, this study proposes a predictive framework that integrates weather-based ridership models with downscaled climate projections. The framework aims to predict cycling demand under various climate scenarios. Using Montréal as a case study, we explore how projected climate changes could affect urban cycling in a cold-climate North American city. By the 2050s, Montréal is expected to experience warmer and drier conditions, with ridership projected to increase by 8.7% to 19.9% across different scenarios. The most notable growth is anticipated during shoulder months, such as April, October, and November, due to more favorable weather conditions. These findings emphasize the need to adapt bicycle infrastructure and services to accommodate evolving demand in a changing climate.

查看原文本刊更多论文

城市自行车运动的未来：气候变化预测框架

城市自行车在可持续城市交通中发挥着至关重要的作用。它减少了交通对环境的影响，促进了公众健康。虽然城市自行车是应对气候变化的关键，但未来的气候条件可能会对主动交通产生重大影响。在此背景下，本研究提出了一个预测框架，将基于天气的乘客模型与缩小尺度的气候预测相结合。该框架旨在预测各种气候情景下的自行车需求。以蒙特利尔为例，我们探讨了预测的气候变化会如何影响北美寒冷气候城市的自行车出行。到 2050 年代，蒙特利尔预计将经历更温暖、更干燥的气候条件，在不同的情景下，骑行人数预计将增加 8.7% 到 19.9%。由于天气条件更加有利，预计在 4 月、10 月和 11 月等肩月的增长最为显著。这些发现强调了调整自行车基础设施和服务的必要性，以适应不断变化的气候条件下不断发展的需求。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.