Predicting students' short- and long-term academic achievement in higher education: A cross-classified multilevel study

IF 3.8 1区心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, EDUCATIONAL

Learning and Individual Differences Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI:10.1016/j.lindif.2025.102697

Jonas Willems , Jordi Heeren , Alicia Ramos , Nicolas Dirix , Karine Verschueren , Wouter Duyck , Lieve De Wachter , Marlies Lacante , Sofie Van Cauwenberghe , Lien Demulder , Veerle Vanoverberghe , Vincent Donche

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of secondary education (SE) and higher education (HE) study programmes on both the short-term (one year) and long-term (three years) academic achievement of HE students. It also examines the impact of various background, cognitive, and non-cognitive factors, controlling for SE and HE programmes. Based on a representative dataset (N = 24,183), this study employs cross-classified multilevel models with a random interaction effect between SE and HE levels. Results show that both SE and HE study programmes impact short- and long-term achievement in HE. The impact of SE programmes is smaller on long-term achievement, while that of HE programmes remains stable. Notably, the alignment between SE and HE programmes, is increasingly important in the long run. The study also highlights that background, non-cognitive and cognitive factors significantly predict academic achievement in both time frames, with important variations in their impacts on short- and long-term outcomes.

Educational relevance statement

Having a clear perspective on the key determinants of academic achievement in higher education (HE) is crucial to support students during their difficult transition to HE. The present study addresses important gaps in the existing literature by analysing the influence of secondary education (SE) and higher education (HE) programmes on both short- and long-term academic achievements of HE students. It also examines the impact of a wide range of background, cognitive, and non-cognitive factors on these academic achievement measures, controlling for the effects of SE and HE programmes. The study reveals several important findings, among which: (1) An included interaction term between random variances at the SE and HE programme levels (in a cross-classified multilevel model) increasingly predicts academic achievement over time, suggesting the necessity of aligning SE and HE programmes. This is particularly relevant for SE administrators and counsellors developing study choice guidance trajectories for students; (2) There is evidence of a cumulative effect of SES risk factors in HE, with the influence of these background variables on academic achievement intensifying over time; (3) Cognitive and non-cognitive factors assessed at the end of SE significantly influence academic performance over a three-year period in HE, in addition to their impact on short-term academic achievement. This underscores the predictive validity of these measures and underscores their inclusion in online assessment tools designed to support SE students intending to pursue HE.

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高等教育学生短期和长期学业成绩预测：一项交叉分类的多层次研究

本研究探讨中等教育（SE）和高等教育（HE）学习计划对高等教育学生短期（一年）和长期（三年）学业成绩的影响。它还检查了各种背景、认知和非认知因素的影响，控制了SE和HE课程。本研究基于代表性数据集（N = 24,183），采用SE与HE水平随机交互作用的交叉分类多水平模型。结果表明，高等教育和社会科学课程对高等教育的短期和长期成就都有影响。社企课程对长期成就的影响较小，而高等教育课程的影响则保持稳定。值得注意的是，从长远来看，SE和HE课程之间的协调越来越重要。该研究还强调，背景、非认知和认知因素在两个时间框架内都能显著预测学业成绩，它们对短期和长期结果的影响存在重要差异。对高等教育中学业成就的关键决定因素有一个清晰的观点，对于帮助学生顺利过渡到高等教育至关重要。本研究通过分析中等教育（SE）和高等教育（HE）课程对高等教育学生短期和长期学业成就的影响，解决了现有文献中的重要空白。它还研究了广泛的背景、认知和非认知因素对这些学业成就指标的影响，控制了SE和HE课程的影响。结果表明：(1)在交叉分类的多层次模型中，社会科学与高等教育课程水平随机方差之间的相互作用项越来越多地预测学生的学业成绩，这表明社会科学与高等教育课程必须保持一致。这对于为学生制定学习选择指导轨迹的SE管理人员和辅导员尤其重要；(2)高等学校社会经济地位风险因素存在累积效应，背景变量对学业成绩的影响随时间的推移而增强；(3)除了对短期学业成绩有影响外，认知和非认知因素在SE结束时评估对高等教育三年期间的学业成绩有显著影响。这强调了这些措施的预测有效性，并强调了将其纳入旨在支持有意攻读高等教育的SE学生的在线评估工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Learning and Individual Differences PSYCHOLOGY, EDUCATIONAL-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

2.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Learning and Individual Differences is a research journal devoted to publishing articles of individual differences as they relate to learning within an educational context. The Journal focuses on original empirical studies of high theoretical and methodological rigor that that make a substantial scientific contribution. Learning and Individual Differences publishes original research. Manuscripts should be no longer than 7500 words of primary text (not including tables, figures, references).