Future changes in tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific under climate change

Abstract

The current study, leveraging large ensemble high-resolution atmospheric model simulations (d4PDF) with three warming scenarios, uncovers potential shifts in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks within the western North Pacific (WNP) under future warming. Both northward and eastward migrations are detected in projected TC tracks. TC tracks north of 40°N are projected to surge by 25% and 65%, respectively, under the future 2 K and 4 K warming scenarios. Meantime, TC tracks south of 40°N and east of 160°E are projected to increase by 15% and 36%, respectively, under the two warming scenarios. These changes in TC tracks are intimately linked to shifts in TC genesis locations and alterations in large-scale steering flows. Specifically, the increase in TC tracks north of 40°N is attributed to a slowdown of the TC movement due to slow-down of westerly steering flows. The increase in TC tracks east of 160°E is closely associated with the rise in TC genesis east of 160°E due to an anomalous cyclone. Additionally, there is a decrease in projected TC landfalling along the East Asian coast, predominantly attributable to the reduced TC genesis west of 160°E. Our findings emphasize the heightened vulnerability of high-latitude regions in China and Japan to TC hazards under future warming conditions.