Socio-technical feasibility of coal transitions in India: Results from stakeholder interviews

Abstract

Strategizing development-led energy transitions for India would need considerable stakeholder inputs for improved decision-making. While modeling exercises have largely been used for research and policymaking, an increasing need is felt to validate underlying assumptions and model findings based on views of important stakeholders. Particularly, for the coal sector, these stakeholders are present throughout the value chain: mining, end-use (power and industry), regulatory agencies, transport and advocacy. This paper summarizes the key findings of our interviews with n = 21 stakeholders across these sectors focusing on evolving coal use, underlying technologies and socio-technical features of this transition. Based on this exercise, interviewed experts largely believe that coal use would continue for the next two decades in the interest of energy security and energy affordability to the consumer. At the same time, they also acknowledged the reduced costs of solar, which makes it a key player in the analysis. We also notice an improved perception of carbon management technologies. Particularly, CO₂ utilization to produce methanol and urea are seen as potential winners as these approaches could facilitate lower imports of petroleum and natural gas products. Geologic CO₂ storage is still somewhat impeded by technical limitations and lack of global exemplars. Other approaches such as recovery of methane from gassy coal mines and biomass co-firing are seen as important but limited in potential. Most stakeholders also pointed to the need for averting job losses in the coal value-chain, which may not necessarily be made up by renewables.