A novel integration of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy logic to evaluate drought vulnerability in a semiarid region

IF 5.4 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI:10.1016/j.seps.2025.102221

Leandro Arthur Vieira Vaz , Hamilcar José Almeida Filgueira , Eliamin Eldan Queiroz Rosendo , Richarde Marques da Silva , Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos

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Abstract

Drought vulnerability remains a critical yet underexplored issue in the Brazilian semiarid region, particularly in Paraíba state. This study introduces a novel methodology that integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Logic to assess drought vulnerability across the region. A script was specifically developed to implement this approach, assigning weights to 20 variables distributed across three key indicators: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. The analysis identified Sumé as the most vulnerable municipality, with a vulnerability index of 0.5792, while Princesa Isabel and Cajazeiras exhibited the lowest vulnerability, both with an index of 0.5000. The integration of AHP and Fuzzy Logic not only quantifies drought vulnerability but also effectively captures uncertainties associated with socioeconomic factors and climatic variability. The findings highlight the robustness of this methodology in supporting decision-making processes for disaster management and prevention, demonstrating its potential applicability in similar contexts worldwide.

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基于层次分析法和模糊逻辑的半干旱区干旱脆弱性评价方法

在巴西半干旱地区，特别是Paraíba州，干旱脆弱性仍然是一个关键但尚未得到充分探讨的问题。本研究提出了一种结合层次分析法（AHP）和模糊逻辑（Fuzzy Logic）的新方法来评估整个地区的干旱脆弱性。专门开发了一个脚本来实现这种方法，将权重分配给分布在三个关键指标上的20个变量：暴露、灵敏度和自适应能力。分析结果表明，sum是最脆弱的城市，其脆弱性指数为0.5792，伊莎贝尔公主和卡哈泽伊拉斯的脆弱性指数最低，均为0.5000。AHP和模糊逻辑的结合不仅量化了干旱脆弱性，而且有效地捕捉了与社会经济因素和气候变率相关的不确定性。研究结果强调了这种方法在支持灾害管理和预防决策过程方面的稳健性，表明了它在全世界类似情况下的潜在适用性。

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来源期刊

Socio-economic Planning Sciences OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

13.10%

发文量

294

审稿时长

58 days

期刊介绍： Studies directed toward the more effective utilization of existing resources, e.g. mathematical programming models of health care delivery systems with relevance to more effective program design; systems analysis of fire outbreaks and its relevance to the location of fire stations; statistical analysis of the efficiency of a developing country economy or industry. Studies relating to the interaction of various segments of society and technology, e.g. the effects of government health policies on the utilization and design of hospital facilities; the relationship between housing density and the demands on public transportation or other service facilities: patterns and implications of urban development and air or water pollution. Studies devoted to the anticipations of and response to future needs for social, health and other human services, e.g. the relationship between industrial growth and the development of educational resources in affected areas; investigation of future demands for material and child health resources in a developing country; design of effective recycling in an urban setting.