Exploring the impacts of climate change on ecological footprint in Iran: A dynamic input-output analysis

Abstract

The negative impacts of climate change in Iran are coupled with considerable ecological deficits, which are expected to worsen under unfavorable climatic conditions. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on ecological variables using a dynamic and novel Input-Output model. The applied data included the Iranian Input-Output table, ecological footprint, and damage matrix. The findings indicated that Iran's fragile economic growth is associated with a significant ecological footprint and a concerning ecological deficit. Based on the simulation results, energy consumption constitutes approximately 75–76 % of the overall ecological footprint, whereas the cropland footprint contributes approximately 10–12 %. The annual growth rate of these components, which typically fluctuates around 2.5 %, spans a broader range of −0.5 %–1.8 % owing to the influence of climate change. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the total ecological footprint is expected to surpass 8 gha (global hectares) by 2060. However, under climate change options, the majority will likely be confined within the range of 5–6.5 gha. The study revealed an increase in ecological deficits, especially when considering mild climate variations. The ecological coordination coefficient experienced a decrease, indicating a disparity between economic development and the state of the ecological environment. Sectoral analysis showed that approximately 70 % of the ecological footprint originates from the services sector, whereas the agricultural and manufacturing sectors each contribute 8–9.5 %. The findings also demonstrated that the shift from agricultural to non-agricultural activities increases the ecological footprint intensity of agricultural practices while significantly reducing it for other sectors, particularly services.